Estimates of Japanese economy (short, medium, and long term)

I put data in order and write about the anticipated effects focused especially on its economy.
The below is my idea and ideas I got from analysts.
So it might contain incorrect facts, but I want you to read and think it over by yourself.
I divided into three terms: short term (〜 1 month), medium term (〜 6 months), and long term (〜 5 years)


■Short term (〜 1 month)
□Consumption fall
Consumer minds have cooled since the quake. This was a huge disaster which deprived many people of their family and property. We tend to refrain from getting goods which are not necessities. As a result, food service industry and toursit industry are damaged directly. We know that it doesn't help recovering from this situation and it makes the economic situation worse, but we just don't feel like to spend the luxurious life we had before.
Also, The government has called saving electricity to people because one of the biggest generators of electricity have stopped. Therefore, people in Tokyo area are now trying their effort to save power.
However, I think this kind of power saving action doesn't have any impacts and this accelerate depressed people's mind. When we are in a dark place and pay attention to power saving, our consumption drops.
Saving power is important, but I think the important point is the peak of the demand of electricity. If we avoid using the electricity in a peak time which is now from 4 to 6 pm, we don't need to consider the power supply at night.

□Affected manufacturing industry
Plants in northern Japan got damaged by the quakes and tsunamis, and it takes time to replace them. Moreover, there are worries of power shortage problems. So, many car companies and electrical equipment manufactures stopped some plants and it affects the entire system, such as Toyota, Honda, and Sony which had sustained Japanese economy.

□Many small businesses went and will go bankrupt in the stricken areas.
This will result in many unemployed people.

□Fall of exports
Many manufactures have got damaged and also will get damaged by both the quake directly and the short supply of electricity indirectly as I mentioned above.
In addition, the damage to the export of food is serious because of the radioactive problems. Some countries already annouced that they will check the radioactive levels of food from Japan, but the radioactive level is actually pretty low and doesn't affect any problems in human bodies. This is also becoming a domestic problem. People now avoid food in Fukushima Prefecture and also Ibaraki Prefecture.


■Midium term (〜 a half year)
□Supply shortage of the electricity
This will influence all the industries. The continuous planned blackout will be solved partially when it gets warm and people stop using heaters. However, it is estimated it takes at least a half year to get another thermal power plant start, and we will have next big planned blackout in summer.

□Immense government's expenditure
You know that the expenditure will largely increase to construct new buildings and support the victims.
TEPCO, which owns the nuclear plants will face a huge amount of compensation. The company has already spent huge amount of money on the management of this problem and will spent more. Moreover, TEPCO will have to pay for those who got negative damage, especially people who have residence and cannot go back and farmers who cannot sell their agricultural products because of a rumor of the radioactive materials.
Therefore, TEPCO might not be able to run a business as a private company, and the government might inject public funds for the company.


■Long term (〜 5 years)
<Negative>
□Company's shift to other Asian cities
Although I'm not sure about this, foreign companies might move their headquaters to other Asian cities, such as Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore. It was often said that the corporation tax in Japan is very high compared to other Asian countries. More overseas companies moved their headquaters to cities I raised above in the last ten years, and it is a good time for those companies to move in this time.

□Discontinuance of a sale of nuclear plants
The government won't be able to sell nuclear plants to the world anymore. The impact the problem gave to the world is enormous and it's not only a domestic problem.
The world has been shifting to use clean technology instead of fossil fuels. However, this accident blew off all the actions. Now, the world is very careful to use this technology and no countries will try to introduce it for the next some years.
Historycally US invested a lot on the nuclear technology but the country had to stop after Three Mile, and the countries which got profits from this were Japan and France.
Japanese government had proceeded the MOX project, but have to give it up. Japan will lose engineers and cannot sell the technology with standing at the front.

<Positive>
□Economic growth
It might be possible that Japanese economy change this disaster to the growth force. I mean here it's not a "recovery" but it's a "growth."
Domestic demand will become the driving force of the economy. Economists often said that Japanese economy has a little domestic demand and the economy remains stagnant in the situation of decreased population. However, the country can see this terrible accident as a big chance to lead the economy.
Construction industry will lead the economic growth.
Technology of storage battery will also be advanced and solar panel will gradually be spread because people realized the importance of storing and generating power by themselves.
Those two technologies are necessary for other countries as well in this 21st century. So, it has a huge potential.


I believe Japan will recover from this tragedy and rise again.